The Future: Russia

Russian geopolitical conflicts are destined to reemerge. The cold war was lost but Russia still remains. The fact that Russia exists and is reenergized means these conflicts will arise sooner than later. Where will Russia’s influence lie and what relationship will they have with their neighbors? The Russian question will be the next element of world history poised to be settled within the next 10 years.

Russia’s fundamental weakness is its northwest borders, void of natural barriers. The best Russia can hope for is a ‘deep’ border that hinders conquerors’ paths to Moscow. Russia’s buffer zones used to be a thousand miles from St. Petersburg and 1200 miles from Moscow. Now, NATO troops lie 100 miles from St. Petersburg and 200 miles from Moscow.

Is Russia dying?

Defense of Russia’s vast borders is an immense economic burden which undermines the Russian economy. Current population trends sees Russia going from 150 million down as low as less than 100 million by 2050. Trajectories dictate that Russia needs to act now in order to secure its old Soviet Union borders and buffer zones.

Recently, Russia has shifted from industrialization to exporting energy and natural resources and has created dependencies among European nations for its natural gas. In addition, it has begun to use this dependency as a pawn to force nations to bend to Russia’s will. Unfortunately Russia is not as militarily strong as it needs to be and will be seen as a wealthy weak country in the future.

Russian defensive moves look offensive

Russia will strive to not only create buffer zones but buffer zones for its buffer zones and additionally try to cull anti-Russian coalitions. It will confront the US in regard to Georgia and make the Turks weary of having the Russian army at their borders. There will be conflict in the Caucasus.

The Russians will reestablish Belarus and the Ukraine under their wing shortly and the Baltics will be the point of contention. As the Russians renew old buffer zones Poland will be forced to take action. The Russians will try to neutralize the Balts. The US will enter technology transfer agreements and will increase Polish power in order to bog down the Russians. The US goal is and always has been to ensure there are no dominate regional powers in Eurasia. The US will stir up Eastern Europe to the point that Germany and France will have to block NATO support for Poland.

Russian soldier and his tools

The US will once again become obsessed with Russia keeping it in knots until the country’s military collapses without war sometime in the early 2020’s just as it collapsed in 1917 and 1991.